History indicates that the Giants should probably not choose a quarterback at all if they don’t do so early.
There’s no assurance Joe Schoen, the general manager of the New York Giants, will select a quarterback at the top of the first round in the NFL Draft, even if he is determined to do so. There’s a chance a team like the Minnesota Vikings move up from the No. 11 pick to the No. 4 pick in order to take all the top options off the board before the Giants pick at No. 6. The teams with the top three picks are in severe need of a quarterback.
If the Giants aren’t smitten with the available quarterback or quarterbacks, they might also decide to utilize the choice on a different position. The Giants can still select a quarterback later in the draft if they miss out on one at the top, but their chances of selecting a franchise quarterback are diminished.
The Giants may decide not to select a quarterback in the first round in favor of using their second-round pick (No. 47) to select either Oregon’s Bo Nix or Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. However, in recent selections, quarterbacks haven’t found much success in the second round.
In the last ten drafts, just eight quarterbacks have been chosen in the second round. The sole quarterback selected by a franchise in that group is Jalen Hurts, who was selected by the Philadelphia Eagles at selection No. 53 in 2020. Jimmy Garoppolo (No. 62) and Derek Carr (No. 36) were the products of the 2014 second round. Other than that, Christian Hackenberg (ranked 51st in 2016), DeShone Kizer (ranked 52nd in 2017), Drew Lock (ranked 42nd in 2019), and Kyle Trask (ranked 64th in 2021) are the products of the second round, or worse. Regarding Tennessee Titans 2023 second-round selection Will Levis (No. 33), the jury is yet out.
QBs selected after the second round are considered Hail Marys. There are twelve Kyle Laulettas for every Brock Purdy.
QB backup plan?
If the Giants don’t find a quarterback at the top of the draft, they have the option to trade back into the first round for one. Having a rookie contract with a fifth-year option adds value to a first-round selection.
A prime example of this strategy is two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, who the Baltimore Ravens selected with the 32nd overall pick in the 2018 draft. But finding elite starters near the end of the first round hasn’t been any more successful than in subsequent rounds, with the exception of Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love, who was selected with the 26th overall pick in 2020. Teddy Bridgewater (No. 32 in 2014), Paxton Lynch (No. 22 in 2014), Johnny Manziel (No.
The other late first-round quarterbacks selected in the previous ten drafts are 20 in 2022.
The Giants have a second-round pick (No. 47); how high can they go? A look at the trade charts that are available, such as the one that former Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson drew up in the 1990s, offers direction.
The Johnson chart indicates that the Giants can advance to the No. 27–28 range if they combine their third-round pick (No. 70) with No. 47. Reaching the No. 23–24 range would allow the Giants to include their fourth-round pick (No. 107) in the package. They may advance to No. 39, the early second-round selection they sent to the Carolina Panthers in the second round, if they only utilized their second and fourth round picks.
the trade for Brian Burns.
Practical guidelines for future picks and extra pick swaps are provided by two transactions made at the 2019 draft. The Indianapolis Colts received the 26th pick from the Washington Commanders in exchange for the 46th pick and a 2020 second-round selection. The Los Angeles Rams received the 31st pick and a sixth-round pick (No. 203) from the Atlanta Falcons in exchange for the 45th pick and a third-round pick (No. 79).
More to give
The Vikings are thought to be a formidable opponent if the Giants decide to trade up for a quarterback. In exchange for a 2024 second-round pick (No. 42), a 2025 second-round pick, and a late-round pick swap, Minnesota acquired an additional first-round pick (No. 23) from the Houston Texans. With Kirk Cousins departing for Atlanta in free agency, the Vikings now have the No. 11 and 23 picks along with a massive quarterbacking void.
The Giants should be able to put together a better trade deal than Minnesota, even though two first-round picks are an attractive addition. The Vikings’ top two selections (No. 11 and 23) are marginally less valuable than the Giants’ first two picks (Nos. 6 and 47).
the trading chart for Johnson.
A team like the Arizona Cardinals, who have the fourth pick, would still have a chance to select an exceptional prospect thanks to the Giants’ No. 6 pick. That might be a compelling benefit since, in the event that Arizona drops back to No. 11, that guarantee is nullified.
To get into the top five, a deal would need to involve more money, and the Giants have more to give. The Giants have the 70th pick, and the Vikings don’t have a second- or third-round pick this year to entice them with an offer. In the Texans trade, the Vikings also gave up their 2025 second-round pick; in contrast, the Giants will have picks in the first five rounds of the following year’s draft.
Once more, in order to trade up, the Giants would have to force the Vikings to outbid them. But the Giants ought to have enough advantages over Minnesota’s strongest package.
In his first two drafts, trader Joe Schoen has demonstrated that he is an active trader. In the second round of the 2022 draft, he made two trades back, going back seven spots to add picks in the fourth and fifth rounds. Last year, Schoen took a different approach, trading up in the first and third rounds. In order to advance one spot in the first round, he forfeited fifth and seventh round picks. In the third round, he gave up a fourth round pick in order to advance sixteen spots.
Schoen stated during the 2023 draft, “We have trade charts that we use, and we have different formulas that we use based on the Jimmy Johnson chart or something our analytics department put together.”
With the exception of surplus value for their move up in the third round of last year, Schoen’s draft swaps have been about balanced on Johnson’s chart and a revised version created by Rich Hill in 2018.
A peek at what’s coming up
John Mara, a co-owner of the Giants, reportedly stated that this group of quarterbacks is “the most talented group to come out in years,” according to the front office. On the other hand, there is talk that the quarterback class of 2025 holds less promise.
That might be accurate. There won’t be a quarterback selected in the first round of the draft the next year named Caleb Williams or Trevor Lawrence.
But as past events have demonstrated, projecting quarterback prospects more than a year ahead of time can be futile. Joe Burrow, who was in his last season at LSU, was predicted to be selected in the fifth round. After winning the Heisman Trophy, the Cincinnati Bengals selected him with the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler did not see LSU’s Jayden Daniels as a first-round choice after the previous year’s draft. Brugler’s ranking of the highest
Daniels didn’t place among the top six quarterbacks in this class going into the season. As the fourth-best senior, he could only finish ninth in Brugler’s list of quarterbacks eligible for the draft. After winning the Heisman Trophy, Daniels is currently the betting favorite, according to BetMGM, to be the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft.
Maybe the low expectations for the quarterback class of 2025 will turn out to be true. And if it is on par with the highly anticipated 2024 class, that would be a shock. However, it’s crucial to exercise caution when making predictions for the draft of the next year because a lot could happen over the course of the next twelve months.
The Penix process
The Giants have dedicated time to evaluate Penix; a large contingent headlined by Schoen and coach Brian Daboll traveled to Washington’s pro day two weeks ago. The Giants reportedly met with Penix after the pro day and will host him for a pre-draft visit.
Penix’s list of other visits includes the Denver Broncos (12th pick), Las Vegas Raiders (No. 13) and Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 20). The Broncos and Raiders are in desperate need of a quarterback, so their interest in Penix could make it unlikely he’ll slide past the middle of the first round.
Hmm …
It’s odd Schoen mentioned at the combine that this quarterback class has prospects that will be good No. 2 and 3 QBs. The Giants are set at those spots, with Drew Lock a solid No. 2 quarterback and Tommy DeVito as good as any No. 3 QB in the league.
Drafting a quality backup wouldn’t seem to be a priority for a team with such big questions about its No. 1 QB.
Pre-draft patterns
Though Schoen’s two drafts as a GM represent a relatively small sample, a few trends have emerged. Pre-draft visits stick out as a valuable part of the Giants’ process.
Teams are allowed to host 30 prospects for pre-draft visits, which provide greater insight into a player’s personality and medical history. Of Schoen’s 18 picks, eight visited the Giants before the draft.
It’s not worth fixating on the visits of the top prospects because the Giants will host all of the possible options for the No. 6 pick. But mid-round prospects who visit are on the Giants’ radar.
Third-round pick Jalin Hyatt, sixth-round pick Tre Hawkins III, third-round pick Cor’Dale Flott, fourth-round pick Dane Belton and fifth-round pick DJ Davidson visited the Giants before the previous two drafts. I’ll have a full breakdown of this year’s visitors closer to the draft. The deadline for visits is next Wednesday.
Schoen has favored prospects from major programs, especially early in the draft. All eight of Schoen’s picks in the first three rounds have come from Power 5 schools.
Schoen loaded up on young players in the 2022 draft, with seven of the 11 picks 21 years old or younger. But that didn’t prove to be a trend, as Hyatt was the only player 21 or younger in last year’s class. The Giants’ 2023 class skewed older; second-round pick John Michael Schmitz, fifth-round pick Eric Gray, seventh-round pick Jordon Riley and seventh-round pick Gervarrius Owens were 24 or older during their rookie season.
Schoen has targeted players with strong athletic testing results, especially in the later rounds. So if you’re trying to project a Giants Day 3 diamond in the rough, focus on players with exceptional size and athleticism.
In or out?
Tight end Darren Waller is still contemplating retirement, telling The Athletic’s Vic Tafur recently that it would be ideal to inform the Giants of his plans before the draft. “But I also don’t want to put that on myself,” he said. “It’s gotta be before summer break, for sure.”
It seems like Waller is prepared to punt the $200,000 bonus in his contract for participating in the offseason program. But the question is whether he’s willing to walk away from the $11.8 million he could earn playing this season.
Waller’s uncertainty aside, this regime places a premium on attendance for the voluntary offseason program. There are 24 players with workout bonuses in their contracts to incentivize attendance. The Giants typically require players to participate in 84.4 percent of the entire offseason program and 100 percent of the OTAs and minicamp to earn their workout bonuses.
Daniel Jones, Andrew Thomas, Dexter Lawrence and Burns lead the team with $500,000 workout bonuses. At the other end of the spectrum, punter Jamie Gillan has a $20,000 workout bonus. Many of the cheap signings this offseason (Jack Stoll, Aaron Stinnie, Matt Nelson, Isaiah Hodgins) have workout bonuses worth $25,000.
Cap update
The Giants have $7.2 million in salary-cap space as of Tuesday, according to the NFL Players Association database. That’s a healthier cap position than at this time in the previous two years.
The Giants had just $575,000 entering last year’s draft. Schoen created some breathing room by extending Lawrence’s contract two weeks after the draft to reduce his 2023 cap hit. In 2022, the Giants had $1.6 million in cap space in early April before restructuring cornerback Adoree’ Jackson’s contract to create $6 million in cap space.
The Giants will need roughly $6 million in cap space to sign their draft picks, so they’ll need to make a move eventually to create more space. But things aren’t as tight as they have been in the past two years entering the draft.
